Recaps are a review and commentary on the morning watchlist. Recap comments are in blue.
If you are having trouble with trading options, figuring out trades plans, choosing a broker, reach out and ask for help. Send me a msg in discord or twitter.
Congrats to M who was about to go long but flipped short because of my alert in dicord and made $2000 — we lamented how holding for the day with size would have been closer to 20k. We’ll get it next time M!
Welcome to FRIDAY. Be sure to read the recap if you haven’t yet.
Short list today because I really want to focus on just a few things.
General market thoughts
So lets talk about what the run yesterday means. basically we dumped into a big support level and push hard. BUT where did we push to? basically the dump level from Tuesday. We filled the gap.
I think the market is in a precarious spot and good news isn’t trusted. Read the notes on SPY. Overall we are very headline sensitive up and down.
WINNER 300-1200%
SPY
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So here is what I'm watching for. Expected a weak open off that 270 push and pull back to 268 which we are getting in premarket. If we push and pop on 270 and fail again. I want to get 265 or 268 puts depending on the time and pricing. UPDATE: now pushing on weak job, trump tweetRecap
Holy smokes! Nailed the entries. I got 270 and 268 puts, really bummed I didn't yolo the 265 puts per plan. The 268 puts entry was .30. I exited most into 10:30am per my own rules. I had to take a breather since the fast gains and waited for a nice pop to renter size that never came. This hit $5.00 by end of day! The 265 puts went from .10 to over $2.00!!! I'm very happy I executed per my plan very well, but bummed I missed the gains at full size. There will be more opportunities and given the increased volatility and range, I am looking to adapt to allow for more all day range moves. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]Late day win 200-400%
AAPL
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based on general marketRecap
Well market definitely changed from what I thought it was going to do into christmas. AAPL broke 175 yesterday/retested that level and then dumped under 170 after lots of testing. Toward the end of the day the 170p has some option flow. Key is to be patient on entry and the same options they paid .55 for could have been snagged during a pop for 30c and sold for !.50-$2.00 [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]NFLX
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based on general marketRecap
no trades. traded with market [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]NVDA
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based on general marketRecap
no trades. traded with market [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]WINNER 300-500%
MSFT
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based on general marketRecap
Grabbed the 108 puts for .70 that hit $3.50 by end of day 🙂 [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]GBT
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Offering out. Expecting yank into 43-44, if it prices aorund there and holds we should finally get 50+ in coming weeks. I'll probably end up needing to roll the 50c into a longer time frame past Dec. Definitely will watch option flow on this.Recap
Dumped exactly like expected and a little bit more given market [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]TSLA
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Great PT upgrade. Still think we see 380+ next week and 400 by end of year. Any big dips for now are buys unless we breka 350 and that gets toppyRecap
This one gave me gains and then took some away. Sold the swing calls I got into push over 376 and then we got a hard dump that I tried to scoop buy, but TSLA stayed heavy. Market is really ugly when this isn't bouncing. If we get support early next week will rejoin long but otherwise will eye 330-335 levels to get back for a swing higher [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]Earnings Action
AVGO
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note enough volume. in theory 233-234 dips to hold for rip back over 240.Recap
didn't trade it but basically dumped and filled the gap when market turned. When market bounces, this should be a goto. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]ULTA
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As long as 280-281 rejects, I like this for a short.Recap
Whoa. didnt trade this, but the short idea would have paid very very nicely. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]LULU
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big dump and grind back. news seemed mixed to me. Won't be surprised if this stays within a 3% range of yesterday's close. Expected move was 12pts so defintiely option players are getting premium burned unless there is a big move.Recap
This also fell off radar. After getting monster gains in first hour, I got lazy to take new trades. Really annoyed with myself for missing this short. Key level for nonstop sell was break of 127. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]China names
not watching today
Pot names
big pops on CRON investment. Will be watching for failed pushes to get a short.
CRON
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Altria is making an investment. That's huge news for them. First move in premarket is likely shorts and fomo buyers. becareful chasing this. I do think this could squeeze into 17, but I'd prefere to see it dump early part of the day on profit taking and then have a couple of failed pushes and get really heavy and trap more shorts. Then get in for a late day squeeze. If we see a squeeze hard move into 17/18 early, I'll probably be in for some puts. watch the price action and comments in discord.Recap
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