Recaps are a review and commentary on the morning watchlist. Recap comments are in blue.
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Good morning.
Late watchlist today — got caught up in premarket trades on $GE $TLRY $JNJ
Today’s list will be short. I may not trade much until Fed meeting.
Trying something new for the first time to get advantage of SPY volatility. Check out the Can we turn $2000 into 50000 Challenge? Please be patient as I’m still working on the page and how to manage this. It was a spur of the moment idea.
I need to work on the challenge site. Hopefully find some time today. Here is a quick update. Bottom line I didn’t follow the guidelines from the strategy I set forth. If I had, from the entry alerts I posted in discord and waiting for end of day flush the 2k would be roughly 33-35k today. I took profits way too soon and the 2k is now only up to 6k. Tripling the account in 3 days isn’t bad for screwing up, but I’m annoyed at poor execution and patience on my part. Congrats to those who held to targets at full size! If you haven’t already, join me at Black Box Stocks if you’d like to see the entry alerts.
General market thoughts
What a flush into Feb support again in late afternoon. So far each day has been push in morning and sell off in afternoon.
I continue to be short biased overall, but I think there is potential for some relief/sharp rally. Eyes on FED.
No real surprise imho with what the result from FED meeting was. There was hope for much more dovish comments, but the conference was very very hawkish. I was wondering ahead what he could possible say to prevent a test of 2500 and on the flip side he gave us the juice to get there.
SPY
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Key levels I'm watching for today are 253 break for more downside and 258 for upsideRecap
Beauty of a move. The 255p moved quickly from $1 to over $5! I tried to fill at .20 or .30 expecting a pop on initial news, but missed the entry by 1 penny. Then tried to fill again at .50 but it moved too quick. Nail great entries is so important to get outsized gains! It literally is the difference between 500% and 2000% gains. This gave multiple opportunities. After the initial dump into 253, there was a nice pop ahead of the dump into 250 to get a great entry for fast 200-300%+ gains. When looking at these moves, remember to read the news, and look for failed bounces to give the next leg. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]JNJ
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129 is line in sand. if we break that we should see 125.Recap
Got the 129 break. I got short on a pop at 129.30 but then got stopped on a pop into 129.50. after being up over $1. It's too bad given we say 127s. I prefer clean breaks and follow through vs choppy moves. I'm happy to exit flat or lose 20c on any trade when I had good potential to make 3 to 5 bucks in gains. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]AGN
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Potential selling ala JNJ with breast implant sales suspensionRecap
Nice selling but it wasn't the kind of action that brought JNJ like selling so no trades. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]GE
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We've got news and we've got volume. Any dips on 7.55 I want long risk to 7.20. Planning to buy 7.50 and 8. calls but give it more time. Remember we still have Fed risk and I will cut fast at 7.20.Recap
I got greedy and tried to fill at 7.50 vs 7.55. Guess what happened. Missed the move/gains. Congrats to those that jumped in and scalped it into 7.95. Sure its only a .30-.45 move but the thing with GE is you have unlimited size capability to take advantage of the move. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]XPO
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With FDX news, if this gets failed pushes could see more downside.Recap
Been holding strong and then finally yanked back into low 50s. Will be def be watching for a short on Thursday [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]FB
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Recap
This wasn't on watchlist but when I saw the push and given the market and news, it didn't add up. So took a starter short and then looked for 144-145 area to fail. Alerted entries at 1.40 and 0.75 on 142p. And once the price action started showing itself alerted this has the potential to turn into a 5 - 10 bagger. These hit $8!!! [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]Earnings Action
FDX
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Not liking what I read. I alerted/grabbed some short 178 last night in discord. Ideally gets a push on 174-175 out of the gate to get short for 166-168 by end of day. I had to jump out to a weekly chart to find support. This has the potential to his 155-160 if dip buyers at darling status is not maintained. Darling status = when big gap downs/dumps happen, it always gets bought up. If fast dip on 169-170 holds and we break opening highs, I'm game to go long as long as trend holds.Recap
Nailed the read - dumped right to 166. Unfortunately it was already at 170 by the open and we didn't get the push into 174 for the extra points 🙂 [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]MU
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range may be tough on this. Will probably skip. Overall will need to watch trend after first 30-60min.Recap
After initial hours and entries and saved my mental capital for Fed douche baggery action payday. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]ORCL
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45.50 held really well. Watching this for break of long term support to get flush into 42-44 oif we get weak market, but this might be a waste of effort/energy for limited gains. could fall of radarRecap
Simply amazing how well this held. Even with monster market dump. I'm dropping this off the radar. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]Pot names
TLRY
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if 84 push fails may get puts as protection... bull thesis = new money with pharma deal. Bear thesis = overvalued and lock ups expiry. nice gap up in premarket but expecting some selling. 76 is a key level for more downside. and 84 for monster upside.Recap
Great idea for puts. Checkout the push in 83 and fail. You can also see once 76 broke, it sold into close. Then interesting PR regarding joint research with AMBEV for a run up back over 80s and hit 85 in ah. Nice discussion on discord in ah. I alerted the move, the push into 85, the annoyance at no borrows for a short and that a pullback to 78 area is a good place to get long. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]If not a member, please join me at Black Box Stocks for real time updates/alerts.
If you’d like a free trial of black box stocks and chat with me on discord, be sure to message me on twitter @spectre_trades.
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