If this push fails this week, it could be the start of the next leg down.
Downleg potential
Overall while many are expecting 200dma to be tested, I'm thinking the selling may start before then.
If 200dma gets tested, I think we could see an overshoot squeeze in 414 and then will watch for 406 break for entry.
I'm watch SPY 389-390 to break for conviction. Currently not loving the option pricing for the idea. Premium is juiced. But here are the contracts I'm watching.
JAN 20, 2023 Expiration
SPX 3550/3400 Puts (Buy 3550 and sell 3400) currently about $13 want for under $10, close under 3400 by expiration= $150
SPX 3600/3400 Puts - currently $18, under 3400= $200
SPX 3400 yolo order at $10
Perhaps you have a better way/structure to capitalize on this idea, if so, reach out. I try to keep swing trades somewhat binary (fire and forget, otherwise I over manage and exit early). General rule for me on these is lose 50% or make 500% or more
Potential Catalyst Dates
11/23 FOMC minutes
11/26-11/30 Retail Sales Numbers from Black Friday
12/14 FOMC meeting
